Energy models affect energy policy – and policy affect models, too

How do energy models influence energy policymaking? And how do policymakers influence the modelling process? To address these questions, we analysed relevant modelling and policy documents dealing with energy modelling and energy policymaking and conducted interviews with different stakeholder groups in five different European case studies. We show that models support and have an impact on policymaking, especially by assessing impacts and supporting target setting, and sometimes by exploring policy options to reach these targets. Similarly, policymakers influence models and modellers, especially by affecting data and assumptions, determining the study scope, and by deciding how the modelling results are used or interpreted. Hence, energy modelling and policymaking influence each other. Greater transparency is needed to ensure that political considerations do not set the agenda for future research or determine its findings.

Papers:

Süsser, D., Ceglarz, A., Gaschnig, H., Stavrakas, V., Flamos, A., Giannakidis, G., & Lilliestam, J. (2021). Model-based policymaking or policy-based modelling? How energy models and energy policy interact. Energy Research and Social Science, 75: 101984. doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.101984.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621000773

Süsser, D., Ceglarz, A., Gaschnig, H., Stavrakas, V., Giannakidis, G., Flamos, A., Sander, A., & Lilliestam, J. (2020). The use of energy modelling results for policymaking in the EU. Deliverable 1.1. Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project. Potsdam: Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS).

SENTINEL case study

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